%0 Articles
%T Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe
%A Hurmekoski, Elias
%D 2016
%J Dissertationes Forestales
%V 2016
%N 211
%R doi:10.14214/df.211
%U http://dissertationesforestales.fi/article/1994
%X The aim of the study is to examine the factors affecting the market potential of wood construction in Europe towards 2030. The study takes three complementary perspectives: Past trends and current structures, future trends and uncertainties and measures required to meet the long-term targets of the industries.

The methodological framework builds on combining quantitative, descriptive and participative research approaches. By adopting methods and approaches from the field of foresight, the study aims to contribute also to the methodology development for long-term forest sector outlook studies.

The trends and pressures in the operating environment of construction were found to primarily relate to the need for reducing the environmental impact of construction and improving the quality and productivity of construction. However, few of the trends would appear to have decisive impact on the diffusion of wood construction. That is, the positive drivers might not translate into improved competitive advantage for wood construction to the extent often expected, due to the lack of willingness or ability to pay for the attributes exceeding the requirements posed by the building regulations. Instead, the cultural and structural hindrances culminating to the fragmented structure and risk-averse characteristics of the construction and wood products industries seem to create significant inertia for the diffusion of wood construction.

Based on scenario analysis, the outlook would appear to be dependent on the possible regulatory push for green building and on the possible changes in the strategic orientations of the industries. However, the empirical part indicated that the short-term strategy and policy measures suggested by experts are regarded either as unlikely or as unattractive by the industry stakeholders. The results therefore suggest that the diffusion of wood construction in Europe is likely to be a gradual process, subject to significant inertia, and restricted to a few niche sub-sectors and regions towards 2030.